Two Views on a 6 C Rise in Temperature

Anyone who lives and works with living systems has to be paying at least some attention to the discussion of global climate change. This week a report from the Global Climate Report looked at the past decade's trend in carbon dioxide emissions.

In the past 10 years, the rate of CO2 release has increased by 29% - so not a 29% increase, but the year-to-year value is increasing 29%. This past year CO2 rose by 1.84 ppm (parts per million), but with this data, we would expect it to increase next year by 1.84 ppm x 1.29 = 2.38ppm next year.

Following this trend across the century, we end up with a 6 degree Celsius rise, according to the IPCC scenarios. 6 C is a lot of change - almost 10 degrees F. Definitely on the high end of the worst IPCC scenario.

2 Scientific Views of this study

1. It is difficult to establish a trend based on a single decade, especially with the inherent troubles with making a computer model of the whole atmosphere. More here on this view.
2. Any way you cut it, this points to the trouble with any rise in CO2 emissions - the trend shows that the greatest increases are taking place in the developing world (LDCs) as they industrialize their economies.

Which is right? Both, I think. We can't go "2012" on the data, yet we cannot allow the trend to continue. If a 2 C rise is the goal, then this trend shows we must cut our emissions even more aggressively.